El Niño 2026/27: Climate stress test for infrastructure resilience

A super El Niño is forming in the Pacific and is expected to peak between late 2026 and early 2027. For infrastructure investors, it is a practical test of how well assets and operators cope when several regions face extreme weather in the same season.

In this paper, written with Morrison, we explain what El Niño is, why this event is forming on top of an already warm ocean, and what past super El Niños did to infrastructure. They brought floods, droughts, heatwaves and wildfires to several continents at once, with knock-on disruption to transport and supply chains. Because one climate driver can hit many markets together, spreading assets across regions may not fully offset the risk.

The paper then covers Asia, Australia and New Zealand, North America and Europe, and the infrastructure sectors most exposed in each: energy and renewables, grids, digital infrastructure, water and other utilities, and transport. It closes with the questions investors can raise with their portfolio companies now, on business continuity, insurance, maintenance and capex, critical suppliers, health and safety, and communication with customers and regulators. The analysis is a preparedness screen and does not predict outcomes for any specific asset.

If you invest in or manage infrastructure assets, download the paper below!